← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6096680
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 48.9%, up 21.6pt over 24h, on a 20.1¢ spread.
Implied probability48.9%
Bid / ask / mid28.7¢ / 48.8¢ / 38.8¢
Spread20.1¢ (51.9%)
Change 24h+21.55pt
Change 7d+11.05pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$260
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.89
RSI (14, hourly)70.3
Realized vol 7d2.11pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 13d 1h.
Time to resolve13d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.