← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6104887
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in November 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.2%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability5.2%
Bid / ask / mid5.2¢ / 5.8¢ / 5.5¢
Spread0.6¢ (10.9%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-2.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,131
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$186 / $214
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.10
RSI (14, hourly)27.1
Realized vol 7d0.58pt
Change 1h-0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.