← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6104893
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 87.0%, up 11.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability87.0%
Bid / ask / mid85.0¢ / 88.0¢ / 86.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.5%)
Change 24h+11.50pt
Change 7d+8.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,598
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,250 / $6,848
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 90 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.43
RSI (14, hourly)89.7
Realized vol 7d1.65pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.