← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6163400

Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-07?

31.5% implied · bid 31.0¢ · ask 32.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 31.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability31.0%

Bid / ask / mid31.0¢ / 32.0¢ / 31.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (3.2%)

Change 24h-4.00pt

Change 7d-5.50pt

Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 94/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$61,938

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29,758 / $67,819

Imbalance8% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score93.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.29

RSI (14, hourly)20.0

Realized vol 7d0.41pt

Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 1h.

Time to resolve0d 1h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules riskmedium (50)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.