← Explore · Polymarket · Market 616902

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

98.0% implied · bid 98.0¢ · ask 98.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 98.1%, up 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability98.1%

Bid / ask / mid98.0¢ / 98.1¢ / 98.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)

Change 24h+0.70pt

Change 7d+1.20pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$19,934

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$251,443 / $7,912,406

Imbalance3% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.10

RSI (14, hourly)75.0

Realized vol 7d0.15pt

Change 1h+0.15pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 54d 15h.

Time to resolve54d 15h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (0)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.