← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6171434
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-11-07?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, up 35.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid91.0¢ / 94.0¢ / 92.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.2%)
Change 24h+35.50pt
Change 7d+36.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 96% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$51,713
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$27,631 / $613
Imbalance96% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 9.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean9.59
RSI (14, hourly)82.9
Realized vol 7d3.24pt
Change 1h+32.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.