← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6171439
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h-7.00pt
Change 7d-8.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,827
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,660 / $7,258
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.92
RSI (14, hourly)39.1
Realized vol 7d1.70pt
Change 1h-6.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.