← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6171523

Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-11-07?

4.0% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 4.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 4.1%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.1%

Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 4.1¢ / 4.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h-0.30pt

Change 7d-1.50pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$101,536

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$98,058 / $17,762

Imbalance12% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 42 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.55

RSI (14, hourly)42.3

Realized vol 7d0.07pt

Change 1h+0.30pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 1h.

Time to resolve0d 1h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules riskmedium (50)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.