← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6171553
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-11-07?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.4%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability5.4%
Bid / ask / mid5.6¢ / 5.7¢ / 5.7¢
Spread0.1¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+0.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$24,873
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,463 / $7,868
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 81 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.44
RSI (14, hourly)80.6
Realized vol 7d0.15pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 7h.
Time to resolve0d 7h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.