← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6176072
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 3.2¢ / 2.9¢
Spread0.7¢ (24.6%)
Change 24h-1.15pt
Change 7d-3.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$93,673
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$522 / $2,456
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.80
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d3.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 1h.
Time to resolve0d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.