← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6176203
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: 2nd Half O/U 0.5
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 90.0%, up 19.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability90.0%
Bid / ask / mid90.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 90.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+19.50pt
Change 7d+35.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$180
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9 / $251
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.46
RSI (14, hourly)50.6
Realized vol 7d8.60pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 1h.
Time to resolve0d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.