← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6196012
Holstein Kiel vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: DSC Arminia Bielefeld 1st Half O/U 0.5
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 43.0%, up 55.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability43.0%
Bid / ask / mid99.9¢ / 100.0¢ / 100.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+55.45pt
Change 7d+49.95pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 100% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$180
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,964 / $0
Imbalance100% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 96 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.71
RSI (14, hourly)96.0
Realized vol 7d4.19pt
Change 1h+52.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.