← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6254929
Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 57.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability57.0%
Bid / ask / mid57.0¢ / 58.0¢ / 57.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+31.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,043
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$197 / $549
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.64
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d2.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 144d 14h.
Time to resolve144d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.