← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6254930
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.0%, up 12.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability64.0%
Bid / ask / mid68.0¢ / 71.0¢ / 69.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+12.00pt
Change 7d+37.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,034
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$91 / $116
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.35
RSI (14, hourly)49.0
Realized vol 7d2.56pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.