← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6257128
Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.1%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability96.1%
Bid / ask / mid98.0¢ / 99.2¢ / 98.6¢
Spread1.2¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+0.80pt
Change 7d+13.10pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 72% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,543 / $3,018
Imbalance72% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.30
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.57pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.