← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6271645
Spread: Michigan (-1.5)
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 84.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability84.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 85.0¢ / 84.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7d+34.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 39% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,829 / $7,639
Imbalance39% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.83
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d3.24pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 10h.
Time to resolve0d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.