← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6271647
Spread: Michigan (-3.5)
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.5%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.5%
Bid / ask / mid76.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 77.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7d+27.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 42% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,242 / $5,966
Imbalance42% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.81
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d3.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 10h.
Time to resolve0d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.