← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6274177
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.8%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability1.8%
Bid / ask / mid1.6¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.7¢
Spread0.2¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,241
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$157 / $2,816
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.46
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.20pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.