← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6281141
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 19.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$37,599
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$347 / $648
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.98
RSI (14, hourly)43.8
Realized vol 7d1.88pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.