← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6299698
Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 8.3pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.1¢ / 17.5¢ / 16.8¢
Spread1.4¢ (8.3%)
Change 24h+8.25pt
Change 7d+7.20pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$25,537
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$430 / $504
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.38
RSI (14, hourly)63.7
Realized vol 7d0.91pt
Change 1h-0.90pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.