← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6299699
Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 59.0%, up 20.5pt over 24h, on a 14.0¢ spread.
Implied probability59.0%
Bid / ask / mid43.0¢ / 57.0¢ / 50.0¢
Spread14.0¢ (28.0%)
Change 24h+20.50pt
Change 7d+27.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 59% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,417
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance59% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 86 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.25
RSI (14, hourly)86.0
Realized vol 7d1.56pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.