← Explore · Polymarket · Market 631017
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.3%, up 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability99.3%
Bid / ask / mid99.3¢ / 99.4¢ / 99.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+1.05pt
Change 7d+87.35pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 48% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$113,899
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$90,266 / $141,457
Imbalance48% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.14
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d4.83pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.