← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6322990
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.7%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability4.7%
Bid / ask / mid4.6¢ / 6.4¢ / 5.5¢
Spread1.8¢ (32.7%)
Change 24h+0.40pt
Change 7d-0.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$311
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,055 / $106
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.62
RSI (14, hourly)51.3
Realized vol 7d0.26pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 130d 14h.
Time to resolve130d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.