← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6322991
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid54.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$428
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,791 / $4,666
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.46
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.91pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 130d 14h.
Time to resolve130d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.