← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6322992
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid35.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 35.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.8%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,987
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,381 / $7,830
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.49
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.96pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 130d 14h.
Time to resolve130d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.