← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6324299
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 74.0%, down 9.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability74.0%
Bid / ask / mid77.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 78.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.6%)
Change 24h-9.50pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,189
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,187 / $2,127
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 14 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.37
RSI (14, hourly)14.3
Realized vol 7d1.26pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.