← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6328750
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.0%, up 16.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability89.0%
Bid / ask / mid89.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 89.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+16.00pt
Change 7d+7.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 39% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,202
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,618 / $2,832
Imbalance39% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.00
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.06pt
Change 1h+4.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.