← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6328751
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 69.0%, up 23.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability69.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 53.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (11.3%)
Change 24h+23.50pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,646
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$108 / $312
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 74 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.49
RSI (14, hourly)74.4
Realized vol 7d1.72pt
Change 1h+3.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 15h.
Time to resolve5d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.