← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6328810
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.0%, down 19.5pt over 24h, on a 45.0¢ spread.
Implied probability60.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 68.0¢ / 45.5¢
Spread45.0¢ (98.9%)
Change 24h-19.50pt
Change 7d-7.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 53% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$20
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance53% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 22 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)22.1
Realized vol 7d3.48pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.