← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6328832
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, down 1.4pt over 24h, on a 2.5¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid91.4¢ / 93.9¢ / 92.7¢
Spread2.5¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h-1.40pt
Change 7d-3.55pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,492 / $10,589
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.53
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.98pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.