← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6328833
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 92.4%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability92.4%
Bid / ask / mid92.3¢ / 94.4¢ / 93.3¢
Spread2.1¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d-3.25pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$131
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,512 / $1,792
Imbalance14% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.38
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.09pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.