← Explore · Polymarket · Market 634976
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.2%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability98.2%
Bid / ask / mid98.0¢ / 98.1¢ / 98.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+0.25pt
Change 7d+26.55pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 70% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$369,818
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$208,983 / $132,427
Imbalance70% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 23 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.24
RSI (14, hourly)22.7
Realized vol 7d1.52pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.