← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6353935
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.9%, up 1.7pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability6.9%
Bid / ask / mid4.9¢ / 7.0¢ / 5.9¢
Spread2.1¢ (35.3%)
Change 24h+1.75pt
Change 7d-1.55pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$260
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$197 / $538
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.58
RSI (14, hourly)81.8
Realized vol 7d0.42pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 172d 10h.
Time to resolve172d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.