← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6364522
Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of November 2?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.5%, down 11.8pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability4.5%
Bid / ask / mid5.1¢ / 6.3¢ / 5.7¢
Spread1.2¢ (21.1%)
Change 24h-11.80pt
Change 7d-36.80pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$681
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10 / $109
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.45
RSI (14, hourly)18.1
Realized vol 7d3.11pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 15h.
Time to resolve1d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.