← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6364893
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 23, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.8¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.4¢ / 9.2¢ / 7.3¢
Spread3.8¢ (52.1%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d+4.95pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$334
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19 / $36
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 90 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.96
RSI (14, hourly)90.0
Realized vol 7d3.78pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 16d 15h.
Time to resolve16d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.