← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6364894
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 24, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.3%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability7.3%
Bid / ask / mid7.4¢ / 8.3¢ / 7.8¢
Spread0.9¢ (11.5%)
Change 24h+0.05pt
Change 7d+3.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$101 / $144
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.04
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.60pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 17d 15h.
Time to resolve17d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.