← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6365364
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 81.0¢ / 80.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,502
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,877 / $9,878
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.07
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d3.07pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 15h.
Time to resolve8d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.