← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6365377
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.6%, up 4.8pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability16.6%
Bid / ask / mid16.6¢ / 16.8¢ / 16.7¢
Spread0.2¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+4.75pt
Change 7d+4.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,598
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,906 / $2,440
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.72
RSI (14, hourly)72.7
Realized vol 7d1.63pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 15h.
Time to resolve15d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.