← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6365395
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 3.2¢ / 2.1¢
Spread2.2¢ (104.8%)
Change 24h-1.55pt
Change 7d-1.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$146
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $111
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 14 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.57
RSI (14, hourly)13.5
Realized vol 7d0.68pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 22d 15h.
Time to resolve22d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.