← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6365976
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.4%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability1.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 3.6¢ / 2.1¢
Spread3.0¢ (142.9%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-2.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6 / $5
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.69
RSI (14, hourly)51.7
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.