← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366323
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 10, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.4%, up 9.8pt over 24h, on a 43.9¢ spread.
Implied probability11.4%
Bid / ask / mid10.2¢ / 54.1¢ / 32.1¢
Spread43.9¢ (136.5%)
Change 24h+9.75pt
Change 7d+11.75pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$160
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.35
RSI (14, hourly)64.9
Realized vol 7d2.81pt
Change 1h-1.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.