← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366331
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 18, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.2%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 46.1¢ spread.
Implied probability4.2%
Bid / ask / mid0.3¢ / 46.4¢ / 23.4¢
Spread46.1¢ (197.4%)
Change 24h-1.05pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$47
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.51
RSI (14, hourly)53.6
Realized vol 7d2.81pt
Change 1h-5.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 11d 15h.
Time to resolve11d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.