← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366415
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 81.0¢ / 79.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.8%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d+16.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,472
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,529 / $2,398
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.85
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d1.78pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 15h.
Time to resolve6d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.