← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366825
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 42.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 3.6¢ spread.
Implied probability42.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 43.6¢ / 41.8¢
Spread3.6¢ (8.6%)
Change 24h+7.55pt
Change 7d+14.25pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,227
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,293 / $349
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score32.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.48
RSI (14, hourly)57.9
Realized vol 7d4.22pt
Change 1h-1.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.