← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366826
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.2%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.
Implied probability23.2%
Bid / ask / mid22.7¢ / 24.9¢ / 23.8¢
Spread2.2¢ (9.2%)
Change 24h-1.05pt
Change 7d+1.45pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,361
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$96 / $105
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.04
RSI (14, hourly)47.7
Realized vol 7d3.67pt
Change 1h+3.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 15h.
Time to resolve4d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.