← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366827
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 12, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.0%, down 3.2pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.
Implied probability9.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.1¢ / 9.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread2.9¢ (38.4%)
Change 24h-3.20pt
Change 7d+4.85pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$335
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$92 / $58
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 34 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.49
RSI (14, hourly)33.9
Realized vol 7d2.18pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 15h.
Time to resolve5d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.