← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366847
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.4%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.
Implied probability99.4%
Bid / ask / mid98.0¢ / 99.9¢ / 99.0¢
Spread1.9¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d+1.80pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$513
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$262 / $2,023
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.89
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.51pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.