← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366848
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 86.6%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability86.6%
Bid / ask / mid96.9¢ / 98.3¢ / 97.6¢
Spread1.4¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d-0.45pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 79% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$917 / $1,086
Imbalance79% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 16.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-16.07
RSI (14, hourly)60.4
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h+1.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.