← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366849
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.3%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 3.6¢ spread.
Implied probability97.3%
Bid / ask / mid94.5¢ / 98.1¢ / 96.3¢
Spread3.6¢ (3.7%)
Change 24h-1.95pt
Change 7d+8.40pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 21% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$329
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,576 / $21,738
Imbalance21% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.05
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.61pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.