← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6366850
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability82.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 85.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h-6.50pt
Change 7d+6.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,430
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,579 / $1,228
Imbalance14% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 11 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.93
RSI (14, hourly)11.1
Realized vol 7d1.39pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.